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Syria will use the new base deal to assert tighter control, while Russia preserves influence through training access and negotiated presence.

This is a strategic reordering of Russia’s Mediterranean presence and a signal that post-Assad Syria is asserting more control over sovereign territory. It also has implications for Moscow’s regional reach and future military logistics.

Syria will push to turn Hmeimim and Tartus into real joint centers, but Russia’s influence will remain a live test of sovereignty.

Russia’s footprint in the eastern Mediterranean is being rewritten. Even if the bases remain operational, the balance of control is shifting toward Damascus.